November delivered positively for the stock market. Building on third quarter earnings, the market finally started to broaden. All four indices managed to finish over +8% for the month with the NASDAQ over +10%. Technology was November’s big performance winner at +17%, followed by Consumer Discretionary at +13%, with Financials delivering +10.2%. All sectors rallied for the month and Utilities are still bringing up the rear YTD.
S&P 500: Nov +8.92% YTD +18.97%
DOW: Nov +8.77% YTD +8.46%
NASDAQ: Nov +10.70% YTD +35.92%
Russell 2000: Nov +8.83% YTD +2.71%
Sector Performance YTD:
Communication Services +47.3%
Consumer Discretionary +33.0%
Consumer Staples -4.5%
Energy -4.6%
Financials +4.4%
Healthcare -3.7%
Industrials +8.6%
Technology +50.7%
Materials +5.6%
Real Estate +0.3%
Utilities -11.7%
Current U.S. Treasury Yields:
6 Month Bill 5.35%
2 Year Note 4.59%
5 Year Note 4.17%
10 Year Note 4.18%
30 Year Note 4.30%
In the broader view, performance for the full year hinged on the “Tech” area, chronicled by the Magnificent Seven. Year-To-Date we have: Amazon +71.58%, Apple +51.87%, Alphabet +48.70%, Meta +158.45%, Microsoft +58.15%, Nvidia +226.72%, and Tesla +122.09%. Although the “7” limped into the end of November, these companies have delivered. The remaining market participants have now begun to contribute positively.
The Economy and the Fed:
Core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) inflation printed at 3.5% for October, down from 5.3% a year ago and continues to moderate. This trend should extend with monetary policy remaining tight. The FOMC’s 2% target is still the Fed’s goal. Chair Powell is keeping the data dependent stance, which translates to rates staying higher for longer. That said, the prevailing message from economists and stock market activity is that the next rate move will be a cut. A soft-landing looks ever more achievable.
U.S. Q3 GDP came in at 4.9%. Housing remains tight with pending home sales quite weak. Higher mortgage rates and limited inventory continue to be impactful. Real consumer spending was up 4% in Q3. The U.S. consumer continues to be resilient as employment levels remain intact, although credit card balances are on the rise.
Looking Ahead:
The tone of the market moving through December is coming to grips with the Fed’s next move on rates. We expect a 25-basis point cut within the first two quarters of 2024. This will work with moving the economy into a more comfortable position…a minimal gesture on the Fed’s part to normalize the economy going forward.
Cash in Money Markets increased during November totaling $5.84 trillion. These funds will invest back into stocks and bonds moving forward. December performance may be muted with tax selling and macro headlines, especially after the November market moves. However, we believe the month will be positive as investors, retail, and professionals alike, play catchup.
GN&Co